Telco Talent Tracker, 4Q25: Telco headcount erosion continues at ~2% per year. Don’t blame AI (yet?).

This report is a useful reality check on the linkage between headcount cuts and AI. It shows that the telco workforce has been shrinking for many years, due mainly to automation, not AI. The arrival of LLMs in late 2022 has not substantially changed headcount directions, at least not yet. In 4Q25, the telco sector employed 4.339 million people, a 1.9% year-over-year decline (roughly 82,900 positions). This aligns with the long-term trends of steady contraction. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, headcount has fallen steadily for 8 years, with only one interruption: after a dramatic dip in 1Q20 when COVID hit, employment levels rose slightly in 2Q20. Annualized labor costs were $263.2 billion in 4Q25. To put this in perspective, this compares to $295.7 billion in capex and $340.4 billion in depreciation opex for the same period. Some telcos spend much more on labor costs than capital, including…